Feb 24

Weekend Outllook for 25th February 2013 – Bears finally showing up – Big week ahead !

This past week SPX got all the way up to 1530 with some other indexes like TRAN hit 6000 and NYA hit 9000 to the perfection.

Over this week we got all the way down below 1500 which was quite a big move to downside and showed us that the bears is alive. Friday we got a retracement which imo is a “lower high” before the next drop.

If we take a look at some major events coming up this week(starting today):

1. Italian elections (MAJOR event) as it will tell us where the euro will be heading and euro goes down , more downside in mkts. I think there is a good chance mkts will be disapointed with the results , but we should see more of this already Monday.

2. Sequester debate talk this week ,, should be very intense and I think there is a good chance that they wont reach a deal before 1st of March ,, this should also spell trouble for mkts.

3. Then we got a lot of economic numbers too which can move mkts in either direction.

4. On the hourly chart ES futures I’m seeing a clear top “hs pattern” this indicate a move down to 1460-1470 next week , so I expect sell off to reach this target sometimes next week.

5. Euro looks like going lower to 1.29 short term target , had a bearish hs pattern with this target.

6. EWP Spain looks like a clear topping pattern, so expect som bad news in EUROPE near term.

7. NYSI still on a sell signal , nothing bullish there , bears in control on this.

Conclusion: All in all – we can say that bears have taken control again finally , even with the mini “bounce” on Friday after the first big drop this week. I think with the coming events this week, this could be a HUGE week for markets ,, what I mean is that bears could really strike hard this week ,, on a break below 1500 this time would target 1460-1470 and even then I think we could go lower than this.

So my analysis tells me that this week could be quite brutal for bulls especially if we break 1500 near term.


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