Mar 17

Weekend outlook for 18th March 2013 – Peak and correction to begin

All in all – we had a great run in mkts as I’ve been expected over the past 2 weeks since the Italian elections where I said it was very possible mkts could go to new highs and VIX should head lower after the big run up in VIX after Italian elections.

People asked me why it was I got long and took off my short positions just after big sell off and Italian elections – but as I said , charts tells me what to do , and they all told me to take shorts off + go long mkts for at least a bounce, but maybe a rally too.

Markets have got up to new all time highs on dow jones and SPX is very close to make new all time highs.

All I see now is :

1. People has gave up the correction talk as they did not get a correction , this is the sign that we are about to get a correction because most people gave up that markets would go down, but just up up up……

2. VIX is near ALL TIME LOWS of 10 , I believe VIX will bottom in this range 10-12 area before a major spike higher coming , this will result in markets going down.

3. TLT looks bullish to me , I believe bonds might have bottomed out before a rally to come – this will result in mkts downside.

4. FOMC meeting is this week , per statistics I analysed the past FOMC and we usually make a MAJOR top around FOMC meetings , sometimes before, sometims on the day and sometimes after. All in all – I expect a top again at those levels before a sell off to begin.

Conclusion: Bulls has been in control and they might get one more push to target level on charts – but again I think a correction is about to begin and I believe its going to be a lot bigger than most people think. All charts telling me right now , that market peak is around and a sell off is coming soon.


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