May 18

Weekend Outlook for 20th May 2013 – Bulls still in control

Another week another rally – mkts seems like will ever stop going up and never ever any more going down.

This is the feeling for lots of people out there.

At the moment I’m long the fear index which has been holding up pretty well for the past WEEKS – even as mkts rallied a lot higher. So I remain long VIX (UVXY) but underwater , but thinking that as soon the mkts starts falling or having a good correction/pullback – then UVXY will see another big spike higher , so patience is the key here.

1. BPSPX still at nosebleed levels – near RECORD high at those levels. Above 70 is overbought and above 80 is EXTREME overbought. BPSPX now at 90 , this is EXTREME – EXTREME overbought.

2. Stocks above MA200 also near record highs and stocks above the MA200 has never been so large – this means the more we RALLY above MA200 the more we are likely to fall , it is NEVER a good sign for markets when we rally too far from MA200 which we are currently.

I remain only long fear index via UVXY and will be holding – cause I think a larger correction/ at least a pullback will come. We might see just a mini one , but then UVXY should do a good “spike” on it so either way finding it cheap and low.

A break below 1650 on SPX would confirm a short term top is in.


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