Aug 24

Weekend Outlook for 25th August 2014

So far mkts hit new all time highs as I expected when SPX were trading in the lower 1900-1915 area , I kept mentioning , buy the panic as everyone was going short and did not dare to buy.

Always buy when fear is at the highest and when everyone think the only way we can go is up , start to worry.

Here is my view and roadmap going forward:

1. DAX has topped out and DAX will only see a short term rebound as expected. Target is in the 9600-9800 range before DAX makes a LOWER HIGH and resumes its correction.

2. SPX hit new all time highs , I think its possible for a short term pullback before we rip higher. Either way I see SPX going higher and possible well into mid 2000s before we top out.

3. NYSI argues for stocks having more upside too

4. VIX argues that a bottom is close , I think VIX is getting interesting at current levels , but remember VIX can remain low for a periof of time with SPX grinding higher.

5. Gold filled a gap on daily chart and should start to rally higher with September the strongest month for Gold prices.

6. Statistical end of August is weak , so this fits well with a possible short term pullback on SPX before we go higher into 2000s, either way we should rally higher into 2000s before SPX makes a final top

Conclusion: I remain bullish mkts so far , but after the big rally since 1905 , i’m slowly starting to get more cautious , but upside is not done yet.


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