Mar 23

Weekend Outlook for 25th March 2013 – Correction likely has begun , get ready for a wild ride

As I called on Thursday the 14th March for a market top I still stand by that we have made a top. As long SPX stays below 1563 I see no reason to get very bullish especially with all the warning signs.

1. If we look at VIX it hit 11 and has been moving sharply higher and is still at very low levels – there is simply no fear in markets yet and as VIX rises , fear will increase. Expect for VIX to increase from current levels with a market correction

2. TLT looks like in a weekly bullish falling wedge and I dont believe its an impulsive move to downside , so its very likely that bonds will have another massive rally to new highs possible. With people moving into bonds, markets should sell off

3. Also looking at NYSI summation index – not we crossed below MA50 + having a clear bearish divergence as markets made new highs, but the breath very weak. This is another warning signal.

4. With Cyprus in the main event for now – it could be the trigger for a correction – but again markets can go down just on profit taking , but the Cyprus event imo makes it more likely that fear levels in markets will increase.

Conclusion: Expect some BIG WILD MOVES this week ,,, and I believe bears will strike hard sometimes this week , its hard to tell exactly when – but looking on SPX we need a break below 1540 to start the selling. If we break 1540 , watch out below – it could be a wild ride.


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