Oct 27

Weekend Outlook for 29th October 2012 – A possible short term bounce – but more downside and panic ahead


Markets did more or less what I’ve expected from the top call at SPX 1475 + the “topping process I talked about with the swings going up and down in a topping process before a further move down in markets.

SPX got actually down below 1400 in futures trading this week with AAPL earnings – and this is making the pattern I see on SPX even more accurate than before. We are off around 75 SPX points from the highs and I see lots of people begin to speculate that this is a bottom.

I will say – it is NOT , we need some panic selling before I believe we get a bottom in markets and we also need a bullish divergence on the daily chart.

So what do I see from current levels looking ahead?

1. QQQ at MA200 and slowly grinding lower – if you look at the QQQ chart you see in the past were we slowly moved lower and lower,, we usually had a good pop afterwards,, this time I think we do the same – especially as the QQQ hit MA200 on Friday and bounced nicely of it.

2. COMPQ still have NOT reached the top hs pattern target – so I still believe that techs has more downside , what I want now is a bounce in markets – and then a big panic sell off , to form a bullish divergence on daily chart.

3. SPX (ES) futures might form a bearish top hs pattern too – but ONLY IF WE BOUNCE early this week to form a right shoulder , target would be 1425-1440 or so ,, but this pattern will afterwards target all the way down to 1320-1340 , so big move down if true….

Conclusion:

The conclusion is – the bottom is NOT IN I believe – many have been trying to buy for the bounce , but as I expected , there wont be much of any bounces and so true , there havent been much bounces last weeks , but some steady selling going on. I think if we bounce early this week , many will call that the bottom was in , but I think we have another NASTY selling coming after the bounce is done (if we get a bounce) of course.

So if we bounce this week , its a SHORTABLE bounce – before some hard PANIC selling coming.

Charts very short term looks bullish , at least for a short term pop so lets see what the bulls got.

 

Comments (3)

Add a comment

  1. Fatal error: Uncaught Error: Call to undefined function mysql_escape_string() in /home/customer/www/sqwiitrader.com/public_html/wp-content/plugins/mingle/classes/models/MnglUtils.php:9 Stack trace: #0 /home/customer/www/sqwiitrader.com/public_html/wp-content/plugins/mingle/classes/controllers/MnglAppController.php(429): MnglUtils::get_user_id_by_email('a@b.com') #1 /home/customer/www/sqwiitrader.com/public_html/wp-includes/class-wp-hook.php(309): MnglAppController->override_avatar('<img alt='' src...', 'a@b.com', 40, 'mm') #2 /home/customer/www/sqwiitrader.com/public_html/wp-includes/plugin.php(191): WP_Hook->apply_filters('<img alt='' src...', Array) #3 /home/customer/www/sqwiitrader.com/public_html/wp-includes/pluggable.php(2872): apply_filters('get_avatar', '<img alt='' src...', 'a@b.com', 40, 'mm', '', Array) #4 /home/customer/www/sqwiitrader.com/public_html/wp-content/themes/sqwii/library/tfuse_mods/thememodules/theme-comments.php(71): get_avatar('a@b.com', '40') #5 /home/customer/www/sqwiitrader.com/public_html/wp-c in /home/customer/www/sqwiitrader.com/public_html/wp-content/plugins/mingle/classes/models/MnglUtils.php on line 9