Dec 30

Weekend Outlook for 30th December 2013 – Happy new year!

Markets broke out as mentioned was very possible in the near term , and this gave us a target of 1845-1850 on SPX. This is the level I’ve been waiting for to re-short markets. We got there and it is still possible we get a test of 1850 early this week. However I would expect markets to begin moving down after a possible test. Question is then , will we get a correction? Bear market or just another of the small -1 to -5% pullbacks.

Again I’m not sure but as we have a tripple bearish divergence on the MACD , this is USUALLY a bearish sign. When markets keeps going up and MACD not confirming ,, so dont get too excited at current levels.

The bulls is so far still in control and will be in control as long we stay above the 1840 level , a break below 1840 and likely some kind of pullback/correction will occur.

With the VIX near all time lows and this year lows I would expect fear levels to start to increase. VIX got all the way down to 11s and this is historically a VERY low level and often marks tops in markets when there is no fear.

I started some short positions on Friday as we got into target range 1845-1850 , time will tell if a correction occurs or just a mini pullback.

Shippers did extremely well this week and we called FREE, GNK , EGLE and other shippers went ballistic – excellent for those who were long shippers lately.

NYSI is still in bullish mode telling us that stocks could grind higher, statistics is usually bullish for next months but again how much have statistics worked this year with also September and October being very bullish this year.

I remain very bullish on gold/silver as long we hold the summer lows 2013 – a break below summer lows and I would be wrong , but for now I stand by my call that bear market low is in the gold/silver and another bull run will occur going into 2014. Lots of shorts to cover imho also before year end.

Conclusion: As we hit my upside targets of 1845-1850 area , I think we see a near term top + the bearish tripple divergence on daily chart MACD. NYSI so far still in bull mode and with VIX very low I would expect VIX to move higher in the near term and markets to start moving lower soon. We might see a last push up to 1850 , but wont rule out we saw some kind of to pat 1845 on Friday.


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