Jan 5

Weekend Outlook for 6th January 2014

The bull market has been really strong and is quite extending time wise , with the bull market starting 2009-2014 now , we are entering the 5th year. Normally bull markets is around 3-4 years avg , but with QE on deck this rally has surprised the most.

I believe there is still more upside left in mkts this year – however it looks like we could see a short term breather.

I’m quite confused on the very short term roadmap.

I see a short term pattern which is bullish arguing for some early upside potential in mkts – however I remain in doubt if 1848-1850 target I had was a “intermediate top” , it might very well be.

For now very short term bears in control – I took profits on shorts (UVXY) as I remain in doubt on the very short term.

If we break 1840 its likely we will see a move to new all time highs , however as long we remain below 1840 , bears are in control short term.

Gold/Silver had an amazing start to 2014 and looks like the rally I have been looking for has started out in precious metals. I still believe gold/silver miners will be excellent trade here in 2014 and a bull market about to start again in both gold/silver after a 2-3 year bear market….

VIX is telling me we might see VIX little pullback before a possible move higher in VIX , which means markets could bounce early , and then sell off.

NYSI suggest mkts could have more upside and is on buy signal – so this is bullish for mkts.

All in all , the corrections we have seen has just been small pullbacks, so as long we stay above the MA20 there is really not any kind of trouble near term, SPX needs a break below MA20 before we can argue that a larger pullback is due.

The MA20 is right now at 1811s , so as long we remain above here bulls are intermediate term in full control.

Conclusion: The conclusion is that im a bit confused on the very short term , so I am in “wait and see” mode near term. I would expect a possible bounce early , but not sure we make it above 1850 before the correction resumes. However bulls in control as long MA20 holds at 1811 so no worries for bulls yet.

Gold/Silver starting out and expect and excellent year in precious metals.

Until we more sure short term whats going to happend , will be trading small caps.


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