Jan 5

Weekend Outlook for 7th January 2013 – Euphoria top?

First of all I wanna mention that I’m starting a new radio show beginning this week in Denmark and looking forward to it !

We are going to have Peter Schiff interview on Tuesday – so be with us and listen , he will give his outlook for 2013 so should be interesting to see his thoughts.

All in all since November where we got heavy bullish and long – markets has been going up nicely as everyone were bearish. Markets is now near 2012 highs and I believe there is a pretty good chance we might break it to get an “euphoria” top.

Dollar looks like going to have last flush down imo before dollar heads higher ,, if true – mkts could still rally higher with euro going up.

Another thing is TLT looks still bearish and not near a bottom yet ,, weekly chart suggest more downside likely on TLT before a bottom is due ,, and this is also bullish for stocks.

Last thing is we got NYSI overbought with a bearish divergence ,, this does NOT bode well for mkts near term as NYSI looks likely to start heading lower soon. So this is a warning sign that some kind of top might be near.

VIX should see a test of near 13 of this YEARLY trendline , and nearly EVERYTIME we tested this , mkts topped out- so I guess we are also getting pretty close to a market top due to the low VIX…..

Conclusion: All in all – RALLY IS STILL INTACT and bulls in full control ! But we are finally seeing some “warning” signals that markets might be close to a top ,, weekly chart still suggest we might have 1-2 more weeks of upside , but depends on next week if we see a final euphoria spike higher. VIX suggest that it is near a bottom , so if VIX (fear) is near bottom , mkts should be close to a top. Mkts CAN go higher with VIX sideways ,, yes – but OVERALL we should be closer to a top now. I believe the rally from November lows will be completed here in January before another correction. But will wait until I get clear signals , until then staying long and strong markets and riding mkts up as long as it lasts !


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