Apr 8

Weekend outlook for 9th April 2012

Markets globally took another dive especially the european markets + markets in Asia. The only markets which has held strongest so far is the US markets , but eventually they will follow the other markets down.

Some points which is VERY interesting for this week were:

– USD started to rally nicely after FOMC comments about no QE3(surprise???) ,, USD is soon going to have a major rally and will see 90ish later this year , get ready for euro to plunge and dollar to keep going higher.

– Dow Jones broke below some IMPORTANT support levels ,, where it broke the trendline going back to October lows 2011. This gives very good confidence that the rally is done and a new bear market leg is underway.

– Nasdaq , NDX and COMPQ hit some very important resistance ,, the 50% fib retracement from dotcombubble and so far made a “reversal” candlestick on the weekly chart. A major long term top is in and a big decline is next to come.

– Insider selling still at highest level in the past years

– VIX is breaking out per the weekly chart ,, had its first positive momentum bar this week ,, which is a start. VIX just starting to breakout ,, this will see new 2011 highs later this year.

– I expect that this is a 1-3 year top in the markets which will be made (or is already in) ,, after this we should see something similar to 2007-2009 over next years and it will get VERY intense already by this summer 2012 (June/July). You should expect to see something possible worse than what we got in 2007-2009 ,, it is coming , be prepared. All the gains made past months can be erased in weeks ,,

– For the short term view I’m looking at least for a move to 1380-1385 before a bigger bounce to possible 1400-1410 again to backtest broken trendline. Its possible we move down to 1370-1375 before the bounce. Either way ,, the bounce we will get should be shorted into.

– Now we get closer to mid April cycle ,, which is very negative – from around 10th April(Tuesday) we should see in coming weeks more about debt problems in EU and more pessimism. EU markets already topped out by Mid March (made its top in March month) where US lagged and made the top late March.

– NYA still having the very bearish top head and shoulders pattern which targets 4000 ,BELOW 2009 lows — something ugly is coming ,, I dont know what it will be , but something terrible coming by this summer 2012. Get ready the only way to be is to short the markets for next years , short the pops and bounces.

All in all , the conclusion is that the positive outlook for markets is getting worse and worse now , technicals now confirming that things are chaging , especially in the EU where they have topped out clearly. As we get closer to this summer 2012 ,, expect a possible crash coming in June/July 2012 , which should be a lot worse than seen past 3 years. The USD will explode to upside with this and potentially if any conflicts in Mid East happends , oil will explode to upside. Therefore Ben Bernanke cant do any more QE3 in case markets begins to accelerate decline and therefore we could be in big trouble as the high oil prices will do that they cant do more money printing which would only get the problems much worse.

Get ready to some violent stuff coming up these months into summer 2012.


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