Mar 28

Free daily edition for 28th March 2012

Today there will be a special free daily edition with market analysis in the stock markets.

This is because many indexes have now hit a very interesting level in different levels.

1. Looking at the SPX monthly chart – we see that SPX is near a MONTHLY channel down from past many years – its hard to say if the trendline is at 1420-1430 area – but its right around this level.

2. Looking at the SPX chart , we broke down last year in 2011 ,, and came all the way up to BACKTEST this line perfectly yesterday. This could be a bearish backtest of this long term trendline from 2009 lows….. if so ,, major bearish and a downleg is coming.

3. OEX hit its 78.6% fibonacci retracement perfectly + at the upper channel trendline in a channel down over past many years ,, very interesting spot on the OEX

4. VIX has been holding steady last days here down at 15 area ,, overall VIX hit also a long term trendline over past many years and this could be a sign of a bottom on VIX for next many years.

5. Nasdaq Composite hit the 50% fibonacci retracement right on it and the long term UPPER trendline channel in a channel up. It looks like a “bear flag” after the dotcom bubble ,, but we are right on the channel.

6. I believe nearly every single soul turned bullish or at least not expecting anything other than a little pullback. There is not many who expect something worse ,, actually much worse to come , but with most people buying the dips now. This is a perfect environment as everyone turned bullish now, but in reality nothing is fixed in this economy and it could end up really bad ,, and I think it will.

7. For this week the most bearish days is Thursday and Friday — we have a possible major strike going on Thursday in Spain ,, usually many news about debt problems and stuff. I still think we will see a reversal before end of March very possible (which means this week) – so as we now have reached this LONG TERM very interesting inflection points ,, it would be great to see a nice reversal in the markets.

Do your own DD , but my conclusion is that we are near a 1-3 year top still and we have a long term decline underway. I would like to see a fat reversal to the downside before end of March and end of this week to confirm my view of this. However we have window dressings going on as it is quarter end , so they could dress the books.

 

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