Apr 22

Market outlook for 23th April 2012

Markets did pretty much as we expected last week , that we bounced from 1358 to a target 1390-1400 area.

The view remains the same ,, very short term I believe we might have a rally on Monday to a target possible right above 1400 or around this level – but remember , its only a bounce and after this move is done , we should head down to 1320-1330 level and potentially 1290-1300.

So the plan remains very much the same ,, I think the closer we get to June the more heavy selling and a possible market crash could occur by this summer.

I took a hedge via TNA on Friday just in case we rally Monday ,, if we however start to breakdown on Monday I will sell out the hedge.

But from my view I see potentially markets starting on Monday very strong with a move to 1400,, look at the short term chart on SPX , where we might backtest a broken neckline.

VIX is forming a very clear inverted hs pattern too ,, so a big breakout to upside targeting 28-30 is coming in VIX.

I think the worst days for this coming week is mid week ,, around Wednesday (possible some bad things out of FOMC??)

So I still believe we topped out in March , also EU markets ,, they have been slammed down hard ,, much more than US so far. IBEX took out 2009 lows already….

Conclusion: So all in all ,, I believe that we have topped out and made a 1-3 year top in March (so far we have been down) since then and the same with EU markets ,, after this BOUNCE is done ,, we should have another flush down to 1320-1330 and potential 1290-1300 ,, this is the SHORT TERM View.

I think we could start the week with a rally to 1400 level and then the bounce should be done ,, but if we dont get this bounce I think we are already on the way to 1320-1330 next. So for patient holders you can hold shorts tight into this summer ,, as we should by then see potentially BELOW October lows.

By June/July we will get a MONTHLY CHART death cross with the MA50 going below MA200,, this has been on buy signal since 1945 — and is about to turn to a sell signal not seen since 1945. Get ready for the next months ,, its going to be painful for markets….


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