Jul 20

Market view for 21th July 2014

Markets saw its first real start of a potential sell off with mkts around the world being down around 1-2%

So here is my view:

1. VIX saw its biggest rally this year , and often when VIX rises so much in 1 day , we have seen more kind of selling pressure. So I think SPX is not done to downside and more selling is coming.

2. NYSI remains neutral , not overbought now , neither oversold. I think it gets more oversold before it starts to rally.

3. Gold looks like an A,B,C correction has started and I think we are yet to see the low in Gold, possbile one more flush and then we see a bottom before Gold continues higher in the next months ahead.

4. SPX is trading sideways/down recently, I see bearish patterns in NYA and markets so I think we get another sharp sell off coming this week. Target would be around 1920-1930 area to downside on SPX.

5. DAX looks like made a long term top at 10.000 and has started a MASSIVE correction with many European markets.

So all in all , as long SPX are below 1984-1985 I remain bearish for mkts and think we sell off this week.

Seasonality also suggest that mid to late July (is bearish period) in July , and this fits well , the late July (last days of July) is strong , so if we get a sharp sell off this week , we can rebound from next again.


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