Feb 4

Market view weekend outlook

This weekends market outlook will give you a view what is most likely to come here in 2012 and the longer term count.

In September/October I told people that we were close to a MultiMonth rally with a target of 1300+ on that time as shown in the recent calls on this site.

So far pretty much nailed that one as we have been rallying hard , the bad thing is that I did go short markets a month too early , but that is how it is now. Its very hard to pick an exact top ,, but remember market tops on GOOD news and bottoms on BAD news.

We had some good news coming out with US unemlpoyment numbers where markets imo had a so called “blow off top”.

The picture remains 100% the same as I think this top is a major top which we are not going to see again. We are forming a longer term top over the next years and as I read it ,, we are due for a very painful 2012 with the markets.

This time it will get even worse than 2011 for the markets ,, people probably dont believe it right now ,, but the same people did not believe markets could go down in second half 2011 either.

So this time there are some counts which tells us we might see near March lows (according to NYA) but with the SPX I have a target of 750-1000 area sometimes late 2012.

I think the real crash of the markets will start by March 2012, but going into next weeks I see that a reversal in markets imminent. The thing is ,, it have looked like this the past month and we kept grinding higher , but all the charts I watch tells me the same story. This is why I wont bail out on short positions as the same picture tells me markets will go down a lot more with a lot more panic.

We are going to see VIX 60-80 area also somethis this year , as it also looks more like an inverted head and shoulders pattern forming on the WEEKLY chart.

THLD was a great winner which I picked up 1.3$ and been holding for results here in February. (Held it 6 months) this was a TURD for many months and people bailed out,, for the patient holders ,, you would now be up more than 100% as I am.

I’m still holding THLD as results not out yet so going to wait for these in February before I sell. Looks like it can go to 5$ on this momo.

So right now we have ETF like TVIX, TZA , EDZ , FAZ (which is all turds) right now ,, but in 6 months from now those ones will shine like a real winner imo so fhr the patient holders in shorts , much money is to be made.

All in all both the european markets + US markets is telling the complete same story. A possible crash could occur this year,, but I think more of a very steady decline (for many months) with no real bounces.

Have a great weekend to everyone and enjoy



 

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