Nov 10

Weekend Outlook for 11th November 2013 – Bull market getting exhausted!

So far bulls has been strong since 2009 and been pushing prices on stocks higher – a lot higher than everyone had thought about. However there is a big difference between the real economy and the stock markets – as they dont reflect each other. Prices are pushed up in a bubble cause of FED holding the rates low and nowhere else for investors to put money. The leverage is record high so people are loaning money to speculate in stock market – just like in 2007.

1. I believe we are 95% through the bull market since 2009 – I had target 1780-1800 and I think we are here now ,, again I cant rule out a last push up to 1800 before bear market begins – but I think in the coming months into 2014 we should be making a bull market top and a BEAR market to begin in 2014 is my view currently.

2. Everyone is literally bullish now – put/call ratios , sentiment readings telling that most people bullish – like in all tops. As a contrarian this is bearish.

3. VIX is low levels near 12-13 , usually bottom markets for VIX. I believe VIX very soon again will start to rally higher again

4. Nikkei could see a mini crash breakdown in coming weeks – as soon we break 14.000 red line trendline floodgates will be open.

5. As markets has been keeping going higher this year without much of corrections or pullbacks – the more vulnerable it is – so a massive move down could soon occur and it would be nice to see the bull market top around the Twitter IPO.

6. I remain extremely bullish on Gold/Silver and I think a rally into year end is underway.

7. TLT bonds I’m very bullish and people should be buying dips into year end , for a massive rally higher is my view

Conclusion: So conclusion is – short term we could see last push higher on markets – however I believe the chances are much greater for a sharp sell off starting soon , which COULD be start of a new BEAR market – OR it could be massive correction before we re-test highs. Either way I’m bearish from current levels on markets with the possibility of last throw off top.


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