Feb 12

Weekend outlook for 13th February 2012

Markets did get an agreement from Greece that they wanted the money , but the Eurozone contries still wants more cuts and more implementations. Either way – if they agree on a deal or not ,, Greece is bankrupt and will go bankrupt its only a matter of time.

My TVIX truly broke out in a very very big way with huge volume (actually all time volume) and as I expected the VIX to breakout to the upside with the dollar going higher and euro lower.

I still think that the dollar is going to have a great rally in the near term with the euro going down to test below 1.2 next from here.

The market outlook for this week is that we could see some panic – but all depends on the greek vote Sunday. After all no matter what will be the results , I believe that we could see some very heavy selling in the markets and by 15th February this Wednesday I think we could see a major drop in the markets. This wednesday in my book will be the worst day for this week for the stock markets (It may also have something to do with the EU/IMF) setting a deadline for the greek people on Wednesday.

All people from the Greek government need to sign in on papers that they will do what is needed – and everyone wont simply do this imo and that would result in Greece going bankrupt. So in case that they vote yes in Greece it does not mean that they will get the bailout ,, they still need to sign the details from Eurogroup and need to find out how they can get the 320 million euro they need to cut. Everyone need to sign in that they will do those cuts after elections and you wont get them all to sign this. If we gap up on Monday (on the deal) should be shorted as there are a lot more problems coming.

I believe that markets made a major top on ES futures hitting 1350s and that may be a level we wont see anymore over the next 1-3 years as I think that we are still in a very long term bear market.

All in all ,, if we are going to see a crash sometimes ,, I believe that we might see a crash here in 2012. That does not mean we will see it next few weeks , but I believe we are going to see a major move down in markets to below October lows – and possible see 750-1000 area which is quite a bit from here. I think we could see a longer term steady decline to this level with the real beginning of selling in March.

On the weekly chart euro we have a topping hs pattern and weekly chart USD we have an inverted hs pattern – both indicating to me euro going lower and dollar going to rally harder this year. That would fit very well with markets going to decline lower.

Again TVIX moved from 14-> 21(Hit this on Friday) in 1 week ,, how dont you really think it could see a lot higher if we really start to sell off? For the people who had no patience and bailed out with big loss – thats only a loss until you bail out of it with a loss. I’m going to hold it and I think it will end up like a brilliant huge winner like THLD (6 months patience and 150-200%) profits.

So for this week I’m expecting more selling and a confirmation to the downside to confirm a major top is in. Also expecting Wednesday this week to be a very weak day for markets.

See you all in chat room 🙂


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