Sep 14

Weekend Outlook for 16th September 2013 – New highs or new lows for this correction?

Markets is right now at a critical level where BULLS AND BEARS are fighthing really hard.

In my original plan I had few weeks ago I was looking for a short term bottom near 1630 on SPX and after that a rebound to 1670-1680.

We then went down to 1637 and bounced to 1670 few days after – as we did this I thought this was the “bounce” before the next breakdown lower.

HOWEVER few days after we went down and tested 1627 which is closer to the 1630 target and now we bounced all the way up to 1680-1690 (my target was only 1670-1680) but markets always does it to the extremes.

So right now we will see early next week and with FOMC big event coming up we are going to see who is winning. There is a major event this week and that is Wednesday with the FOMC , will they taper or not taper? Again I believe it will be hard for them to taper the QE, but more than 50% economists predict tapering and they have been right so far , so if any taper we might get a 10B or 20B taper.

The bulls needs to break above 1690 early next week , if they do this I think there is a good chance that correction ended at 1627 (but I only give it 20% now)

If we start to sell off more early next week going into FOMC I think we could see some panic selling after FOMC. My main view is still we are going below 1600 on SPX before we end this correction so i’m still waiting for the last panic flush out in markets.

My first call on correction was when SPX was at 1700ish and as markets has bounced a lot of bulls is now very bullish again – but this is just how they do to trap the most imo. So if we get a move down below 1600 everyone would then again go bearish. Sentiment follows the markets.

Gold/Silver imo forming some MAJOR bottom formations – so if i’m right somehow over the coming weeks we are going to see SILVER and GOLD see a massive rally to upside. Will it be FOMC? Will it be Syria ? Will it be German elections ? Will it be US debt ceiling debate ???

I dont know… I’m only looking at charts and got a target for Gold to 1600-1700 in the coming months and Silver around 30$

CONCLUSION: Bulls and bears fighting – watch 1690 level if we break above this we might have ended correction – but so far I’m still 80% sure we get another hard sell off below 1627 before we end this correction. This coming week should be very interesting with German elections coming up in the weekend ahead. For this – watch out for AfD party as I think will make a surprise.


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