Nov 18

Weekend outlook for 19th November 2012 – Get ready for the rally to begin

Hope everyone had enjoyed their weekend – mkts were quite slowly this week starting with moving down slowly all week long until we on Friday made a very hard and bullish reversal to the upside which might be the start of the coming rally.

All in all – I were expecting SPX to bottom at 1370-1380 – but we got a bit lower to 1340 which is more than fine for me – its hard to know exactly where we top and bottom – but I still believe that we are going to get a rally into X-Mas , the so called santa rally.

The rally in my oppinion could very well start this week:

Why?

1. Dollar hit the MA200 + MA100 on daily chart and making a bearish top candlestick – I believe dollar is heading LOWER near term with euro going higher. = Bullish mkts

2. Euro making a bottom pattern (bullish IHS pattern) which also suggest a rally in the euro to come near term = Bullish mkts

3. Sentiment has changed a lot recently and I see lots of people getting bearish now – especially on the techs. Actually according to Nasdaq Sentiment Index – mkts has never been so bearish about techs than ever before (Maybe cause of AAPL drop?) – Another reason to be bullish mkts

4. AAPL made a very nice bullish candelstick on Friday and got down to my lower range 525 and even further down to 505s , I still believe AAPL at 525-555 was a great long entry for swing trade long – and I think it is still very cheap to grab before the coming rally in Apple. I’m looking for 650 area again before year end.

5. Greece will most likely get their money and mkts could very well be happy with this – I dont think they will go down before year end.

All in all – I remain extreme bullish at current levels , especially with SPX at 1340s (or closed at 1360) – but still very bullish mkts at those levels. I dont see any downside from here , if we go lower then I might be wrong – but I think its time to be fully long and take the advantage of this correction to buy the dip before a coming santa rally which very well might start from this week.

So I remain 100% long via small caps + long ETFs for swing plays !

Good luck to everyone !

 

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