Aug 30

Weekend Outlook for 1st September 2014

Happy holidays on Monday labour day. As traders starting to come back after summer holidays we could start to see volume picking up again in mkts.

So far mkts has been rallying quite a lot since the lows I called near 1900s , I felt like one of the only bulls then with everyone screaming sell sell, short short.

When everyone think mkts goes down , we usually do the opposite, and this is what happended. Right now people are getting a bit bullish as mkts at all time highs , and i’m starting to worry here.

Ok here is my view:

1. Markets is getting near a major top , possible the top of rest of this year 2014 on SPX. As I believe DAX already topped out and large correction to 8000 underway on DAX I think US will soon follow with correction too.

2. QE ends in October , in past this has been very bearish for mkts.

3. VIX is near the lows, hit my 11-12 target and I dont see VIX go much lower than here , actually I think there is a good chance of VIX seeing a massive move higher in the coming months ahead.

4. September is bearish for stocks by statistics and Gold is usually very bullish in September. So I expect Gold to rally and SPX soon to top out and stall.

5. DAX looking for last rally to 9700-9900 area before DAX tops.

6. I’m looking for SPX to possible move up to 2020 but I really doubt if we go much higher than that , but its possible we could see a fast and sharp blow off top before we top out for good.

Conclusion: The conclusion is , that I’m starting to get bearish on mkts again , I think the rally has a little more upside left to get last shorts ouf ot the mkts , but after this I think we see a very large correction possible based on Ukraine/Russia, war, QE ends and stuff like this.

All in all , be prepared to take your chips of the table as a very large correction will be the next to come imho.


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