Oct 18

Weekend Outlook for 20th October 2014

What a brilliant week, for those who had been shorting mkts, as mkts took a big dive in the recent weeks from 1977 where we started heavy shorts up. We held the shorts all the way down to 1840 before we took profits and went long mkts after the big flush.

So here is my view going forward:

1. VIX is overextended and looking for a pullback to at least 17 and possible further down.

2. NYSI very oversold and argues for some kind of rally in the near future

3. SPX looks like a possible bottom formation , I would not be surprised to see a rip off rally so bulls will start looking for new all time highs again ,, when everyone start to get bullish again we start to take profits from longs and go short again for another sell off

4. Gold as long it holds 1190 its in uptrend still , looking for a breakout higher still in Gold and miners into year end.

5. DAX looks also like an oversold rebound is coming into 9000s before we sell off further again, everyone too bearish DAX and I see a sharp rally higher soon with SPX relief rally too.

Conclusion: After I remained very bearish mkts from 1977 arguing for a big sell off and major pop in VIX , I got what I wanted and started to turn bullish from around 1840 on SPX. All my points argues for a relief rally to come before more sell off..


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