Oct 20

Weekend Outlook for 21th October 2013 – A lot of warning signals – be prepared

So far SPX did well from our BUY signal indicator when Dow Jones hit the MA200 we argued for a good long spot and a buy signal on equities and sell/short on VIX from 21.

So far we have had a pretty massive rally from the lows and SPX even made new all time highs , VIX lost more than 50% gains from 21 to 12-13 and is now getting at very low levels.

1. All in all – SPX so far remains on a BUY signal , but it looks very toppy to me after this recent rally. I might get a short/sell signal early this week.

2. NYMO making bearish divergences ,, not a good sign – more bearish.

3. TLT looks like could rally , if TLT bonds rally , this usually means risk off… so be prepared for this.

4. VIX is again at low levels at 12-13 , expect limited downside on VIX and this usually means SPX close to a top.

5. CPC also showing signs of a market top in place ,, everyone seems bullish and this is usually a “negative” sign for markets.

Conclusion is: Bulls still got the hot hand here , but there are major warning signals so a short/sell signal might occur early this week. Gold/Silver remain very bullish and expect a sharp rally to 1400-1500 before month end.


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