Mar 25

Weekend outlook for 26th March 2012

Over the past week all major markets reversed to the downside overall ,, Europe got slammed down more than the US , but Dow jones so far reversed 250 points for this week and is right now sitting above “life” support from October lows. This means that if we break below this trendline going back to October lows ,, then we can CONFIRM that the top is in for the next years.

We are still in the timeframe of late March where I expect the reversal to happend ,, so for this week I think we will continue further down, as I also see a bearish topping head and shoulders pattern on the last 10 days on SPX.

For this week I expect the most “heavy and sharp” selling to come by Thursday/Friday time ,, where you can expect some very nasty moves to the downside.

NYA is still below the 2011 highs with Russell and transports also telling us that the rally from October lows will most likely not hold. If we are on the top of the right shoulder on the NYA weekly chart ,, then the next move you can expect is a heavy selling pressure coming in the next months ,, taking us below the October lows and further down.

AAPL might have topped out ,, but we need a move below 575 to confirm the top on AAPL. As fast AAPL has been moving up , expect the faster AAPL will sell off… and this would take markets down heavy imo.

I’m calling for a potential crash here in 2012 coming ,, which will be worse than 2011. Looking at SPX we need a break BELOW 1375 which is the life support on SPX ,, below 1375 and we can confirm the major top was in at 1414.

However when looking at the short term charts to me it looks like the top is in , and we are on the way down for a break below 1375 which would confirm the top.

I remain bullish on gold and silver ,, and believe gold is going to 2000-3000$ area this year ,, so buy the dips on gold and silver. Also I like going long oil ,, I think if something in mideast coming ,, then oil will go up very fast.

So for this week I’m expecting to see a break below 1375 on SPX ,, we should confirm before March is gone, that we had a reversal from the top and so far we reversed a little bit. We need:

1. SPX below 1375
2. Dow Jones below 13.000

This would indicate and confirm that the top is in – and therefore we might have begun a major decline. Expect the worst for this year to occur by Thursday/Friday ,, however they might have some “window” dressings to dress their books on quarter end.

The conclusion is that I think the top was made at SPX 1414 and this is the beginning of a long term decline and potential crash here in 2012. We are going to take out October 2011 lows by this summer 2012 and expect the dollar to blast off.

The worst days for this week in markets will be Thursday/Friday area ,, I think we will continue to focus on more and more debt. Spain and Italy yields has been on the rise again ,, they bought time, but the problems are not solved. What is coming will be something like 2007-2009 if not worse , so be prepared for this.



 

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