Jul 2

Weekend Outlook for 2th July 2012 – Still in the very bearish timecycle until mid July

Markets were quite choppy last week , but to then end on the BIGGEST pop for this year on the EU summit talks about 2.5% in just 1 day.

Markets so far since 1260s area looks like a corrective bounce higher or you can also call it a potential “bear flag” pattern in the forming, which most likely is to breakdown further.

So what I’m expecting is that this rally should be done early this week, to then have its sharp move down in the markets or so called wave 3 down.

The cycles we are in , is actually in the most bearish periods ,, from end of June to mid July – so I’m expecting this rally to end quickly and then resume a big decline into around mid July.

So all in all , conclusion is that this rally wont take us to new highs, but is just a rally before next drop. We called the bottom of this rally from 1260s near perfect , but thought mkts topped out last on the 1363s highs 2 weeks ago. Mkts might have some more upside , but its not worth going long for the small upside left imo.

We are still in the very bearish timeframe cycle imo , so mkts could give up all gains in just a few days.

For myself I remain long UVXY from 11.6s area as a swing trade and will be holding this as the downside on it now is minimal imo and upside is in the range of 20-30 by mid July area.


 

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