Oct 4

Weekend Outlook for 6th October 2014

So far so good – Ive been wrong on my gold call and paying for it currently as Gold is near the lows. However look at the Gold chart , we went down to test the recent support line which has made gold rally big in the previous months, this could be another test of lows before rally.

So here is my view:

1. After SPX hit 1940 and 1930 I turned short term bullish looking for a bounce into 1960-1980 area, so far so good and I took already profits on longs and slowly starting to short mkts again after the oversold bounce.

2. Gold is near support , could be a test of trendline before massive rally , MACD on buy signal and RSI extreme oversold levels + everyone is a bear in Gold. A script for a rally potentially.

3. VIX im looking for a rally to 20-25 still , I mentioned that VIX likely to see a longer term bottom at 11 before rally into 20-25,, and we are now on the way after hitting 18 this week. We might start in this week selling off and VIX might go into 20-25 area sometimes during coming weeks.

4. DAX as mentioned this summer 2014 , that DAX started a large correction with potential 8000 target. DAX mentioned that a relief rally was coming as we hit 9000 and my target was 9700-9800. After we hit this area , next target to downside is 8000 on DAX correction , this would be the entire correction on DAX imho. So we are on the most dangerous path now for DAX short term and a break below 9000 , everyone will panic and we will see a panic flush with VIX spiking up.

5. Looking at SPX I think we could see a lot more lower , if this is start of large correction which I think it is , we should soon go lower after a potential test of MA50 on SPX. A break below 1926 we could see a huge sell off lower , next support is 1900 and after this ,, we could flush further down to 1800s fast, there is not much support below.


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