Sep 6

Weekend Outlook for 8th September 2014

This was a very interesting week for stock markets.

The big surprise was ECB on Thursday cutting rates + QEurope starting with potential about 1trillion euro.

The interesting thing is that markets did NOT rally so much on the day and this is a worry sign for me. Usually QE and cutting rates is one of the most bullish things which could happend, but actually SPX ended in RED on the day, which tells me people are already too much into the mkts and not much more power to push mkts higher.

So here is my view…..

1. SPX looks like topped out at 2011 , also cause QQQ hit important pivot of 100 and I see a potential topping formation on NDX.

2. Seeing very bullish formation setting up on VIX , I expect something in the near future which will make VIX explode higher to 20-30 level before topping out, so get ready to refresh the fear

3. DAX seeing a large top hs pattern (top formation) so expect another VERY SHARP sell off from here on DAX , it looks very bearish and upside limited. DAX might see a bit higher , but should soon turn down fast.

4. NYMO already on a sell signal confirms that risk is off

5. Gold looks like bottomed with SPX topping out , so gold may act as safe haven.

6. September is best month for Gold statistics

7. September is worst month for markets statistics (confirming my bearish case)

Conclusion: All in all – I would expect markets have topped out now , a possible MAJOR TOP on SPX. Also I think DAX already topped out and will see another very sharp and steep decline possible on Ukraine/Russia news.

As I’ve said before , sometimes mkt cares about Ukraine/Russia, sometimes not. As I’ve said before news is only lagging effect , when mkts goes down , they will write in the news its cause of Russia/Ukraine or something else, with mkts up they dont write too much on these things.

So all in all I’m a major bear here now and I think its time to be fearful. Nobody is short mkts now and most is bullish mkts since 1987 according to investor intelligence.


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